How could Lincoln have "let the south go" and what would have been the consequences of such an action

[jgoodguy]

One of those endless questions that get thrown up on the wall.

Inspired by link.

I think the only somewhat constitutional acts Lincoln could have taken would be to;​

1)meet with the "diplomats" of the confederacy.​

2)have the secretary of state negotiate a treaty with the confederacy recognizing their independence and payment for former American properties.​

3) send the treaty to the senate​

​

The fly in the ointment is that the CSA was not patient enough to wait, they wanted independence immediately, felt it was their right and were willing to go to war to get immediate independence.
And they did go to war.

Thus I see no room for such a what-if to go forward.

Any ideas?

 

[rittmeister]

One of those endless questions that get thrown up on the wall.

Inspired by link.

I think the only somewhat constitutional acts Lincoln could have taken would be to;​

1)meet with the "diplomats" of the confederacy.​

2)have the secretary of state negotiate a treaty with the confederacy recognizing their independence and payment for former American properties.​

3) send the treaty to the senate​

​

The fly in the ointment is that the CSA was not patient enough to wait, they wanted independence immediately, felt it was their right and were willing to go to war to get immediate independence.
And they did go to war.

Thus I see no room for such a what-if to go forward.

Any ideas?

why do i have a jg wentworth ad in my head now?

 

[jgoodguy]

why do i have a jg wentworth ad in my head now?

It's your secession, use it when you need it..
Secession now.

 

[diane]

It seems to me that Seward tried to do a run around Lincoln by secretly negotiating with the Confederates. He assured them there would be no fisticuffs but the matter would proceed with negotiations. Consequently, when Lincoln got himself firmly in the saddle and made clear to Seward who the president was, all that went out the window. The Confederates felt betrayed and soon touched a match to the powder keg they were sitting on. I think Seward planned to follow the number 2 course - constitutionally ok and avoiding conflict. He was open to number 1. Number 3 was contingent on how 1 and 2 went. Except...he was operating without Lincoln. Lincoln had an entry administration that mostly thought he'd been elected by accident and was only a prairie lawyer - he had to establish his authority and do a little house cleaning. I tend to think that Lincoln's bumpy arrival in Washington had to contribute to what the South (and he) decided to do - they weren't all that enthused about the election result anyway and it didn't look to them like anybody else was either.

 

[jgoodguy]

It seems to me that Seward tried to do a run around Lincoln by secretly negotiating with the Confederates. He assured them there would be no fisticuffs but the matter would proceed with negotiations. Consequently, when Lincoln got himself firmly in the saddle and made clear to Seward who the president was, all that went out the window. The Confederates felt betrayed and soon touched a match to the powder keg they were sitting on. I think Seward planned to follow the number 2 course - constitutionally ok and avoiding conflict. He was open to number 1. Number 3 was contingent on how 1 and 2 went. Except...he was operating without Lincoln. Lincoln had an entry administration that mostly thought he'd been elected by accident and was only a prairie lawyer - he had to establish his authority and do a little house cleaning. I tend to think that Lincoln's bumpy arrival in Washington had to contribute to what the South (and he) decided to do - they weren't all that enthused about the election result anyway and it didn't look to them like anybody else was either.

We have a thread.
Fort Sumter and Confederate Diplomacy

My impression was that the CSA was going to war unless they got exactly what they wanted very fast.

 

[diane]

Thanks! It's going to take me a while to get through that, but it looks very good indeed.

It did seem that by the time of Lincoln's election, many more moderate secessionists and even those against it had decided force was the only way. Lincoln had stated his position and that seemed that for them. Forrest, who was very much against secession because it would bring war, and voted that way in Tennessee, nevertheless sponsored Yancy to come speak to people in Mississippi. Yancy was at the opposite end of the secession spectrum but the very idea of someone of Lincoln's new party and of his policies seemed to push toward war as the only resolution. Forrest, as an example of a moderate becoming more radical, viewed Lincoln's election as the end of his living - slavery. Messing with the bread and butter! Formerly favoring a legal battle with the Constitution and the Supreme Court, the election outcome pushed him and those of his viewpoint into the fire-eater camp. He was also in the mop the blood up with a hankie group - pop 'em a couple good ones and they'll back off. Sherman could have told him you don't know the Northerners that well! He fully expected a very short war and a quick Southern victory...which did not happen.

A strong reason for Lincoln not to let the South just go is what then would keep other uncontented regions from going? The Belgians in Wisconsin were talking about leaving, Maine was not all so sure they didn't want to be Canadians, and there were territories in the West perfectly capable of setting up as countries. The Mormons were not happy being Americans and Utah was a ways off from Washington D C. Californios and Mexicans wanting California back. It was perfectly reasonable for Lincoln to fear the Union would fragment into a lot of little pieces if he didn't hold the South. He was well into the war before he put his finger on the elephant in the room - the fact that slavery was the weed breaking the foundation of the country apart and it had to go.

 

[jgoodguy]

Thanks! It's going to take me a while to get through that, but it looks very good indeed.

It did seem that by the time of Lincoln's election, many more moderate secessionists and even those against it had decided force was the only way. Lincoln had stated his position and that seemed that for them. Forrest, who was very much against secession because it would bring war, and voted that way in Tennessee, nevertheless sponsored Yancy to come speak to people in Mississippi. Yancy was at the opposite end of the secession spectrum but the very idea of someone of Lincoln's new party and of his policies seemed to push toward war as the only resolution. Forrest, as an example of a moderate becoming more radical, viewed Lincoln's election as the end of his living - slavery. Messing with the bread and butter! Formerly favoring a legal battle with the Constitution and the Supreme Court, the election outcome pushed him and those of his viewpoint into the fire-eater camp. He was also in the mop the blood up with a hankie group - pop 'em a couple good ones and they'll back off. Sherman could have told him you don't know the Northerners that well! He fully expected a very short war and a quick Southern victory...which did not happen.

A strong reason for Lincoln not to let the South just go is what then would keep other uncontented regions from going? The Belgians in Wisconsin were talking about leaving, Maine was not all so sure they didn't want to be Canadians, and there were territories in the West perfectly capable of setting up as countries. The Mormons were not happy being Americans and Utah was a ways off from Washington D C. Californios and Mexicans wanting California back. It was perfectly reasonable for Lincoln to fear the Union would fragment into a lot of little pieces if he didn't hold the South. He was well into the war before he put his finger on the elephant in the room - the fact that slavery was the weed breaking the foundation of the country apart and it had to go.

All good points.

IMHO It happened so quick and Lincoln was so unprepared, I don't think there was much thinking. The secessionists had been planning and preparing since 1850. Lincoln was almost assassinated before he took office.

 

[diane]

I was just reading about the assassination plot - had no idea how complicated it was! Kate Warne, the first lady detective, was hired by Pinkerton for this job because men would not view women as a threat or very smart for that matter. Lincoln was not convinced he needed protection but he got quite a bit when Kate took over. I suppose, in a way, she was also the first secret service agent since she was also the body guard.

I agree the secessionists were rarin' to go - a battle was a good display of how superior their society was, after all. They'd all read too much Sir Walter Scott! It's too bad the ones spoiling for a fight ran over the tops of the ones who were more inclined to peaceful solutions - it always has made me wonder at how many Confederate generals were fighting because their state went out and that was just about the only reason. State meant a lot more and had a far different meaning then - it was literally kith and kin in those days. Lee - almost all his generals were related to him!

 

[O' Be Joyful]

Yancy was at the opposite end of the secession spectrum

IIRC, a certain mod--his name slips my tongue

-- once exclaimed that Yancy should have been nick-named "He that Should have been hanged" vice that Tejas bastard that was "He that shall not be named."

 

[jgoodguy]

I was just reading about the assassination plot - had no idea how complicated it was! Kate Warne, the first lady detective, was hired by Pinkerton for this job because men would not view women as a threat or very smart for that matter. Lincoln was not convinced he needed protection but he got quite a bit when Kate took over. I suppose, in a way, she was also the first secret service agent since she was also the body guard.

I agree the secessionists were rarin' to go - a battle was a good display of how superior their society was, after all. They'd all read too much Sir Walter Scott! It's too bad the ones spoiling for a fight ran over the tops of the ones who were more inclined to peaceful solutions - it always has made me wonder at how many Confederate generals were fighting because their state went out and that was just about the only reason. State meant a lot more and had a far different meaning then - it was literally kith and kin in those days. Lee - almost all his generals were related to him!

IMHO exactly!

 

[jgoodguy]

IIRC, a certain mod--his name slips my tongue

-- once exclaimed that Yancy should have been nick-named "He that Should have been hanged" vice that Tejas bastard that was "He that shall not be named."

I am of the opinion that William Yancy, a fellow Alabamian, a very sickly man 'should have' died off earlier.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Lowndes_Yancey

 

[Wehrkraftzersetzer]

The answer is obvious: WAR & Union defeat

The South would have trained their army by subduing Mexico & others.
At the same time cotton many would have bought a powerful modern navy

When the Operation Reunify (the Confederate States of America) would start an untrained Union would have lost 'gainst a well trained and overpowering force at land and sea

 

[diane]

I am of the opinion that William Yancy, a fellow Alabamian, a very sickly man 'should have' died off earlier.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Lowndes_Yancey

There's some folks he could have taken with him, too!

The Wanderer is one of those several dicey 'incidents' that occurred before the war. The Lamarr-Corree conspiracy - the African slave trade had been outlawed so Lamarr and a group of investors bought a yacht and picked up around 500 slaves from the Congo, who they transported to Georgia. There was no doubt there be Africans here! The captain was arrested and some of his crew - nobody paid much attention to the cargo. That was dispersed here, there and everywhere - scatter! - but eventually 400 of the cargo drifted into Memphis to a certain prime investor there... It was worth it - the profit from this last African slave voyage was obscene. Top dollar was paid for Africans - being transported across the ocean to a place totally unknown tends to keep one's nose to the grindstone...or the cotton boll. This whole plot was concocted by Mississippi planters to force a confrontation with the federal government over whether the feds had the right to outlaw the African slave trade over a state's right to keep it open.

When people are doing things like this - it wasn't the only incident, either - and using their 3/5 advantage to pass laws like the one that made everybody in the US a slave catching posse, it has to be obvious they are wanting a heavy duty confrontation. Arrogance. Pride goeth before a fall was never truer than in this case.

 

[diane]

The answer is obvious: WAR & Union defeat

The South would have trained their army by subduing Mexico & others.
At the same time cotton many would have bought a powerful modern navy

When the Operation Reunify (the Confederate States of America) would start an untrained Union would have lost 'gainst a well trained and overpowering force at land and sea

Oh, boy, then we get into that whole history of filibustering in Central and South America! As Lincoln said, they wanted to extend slavery all the way to Tierra del Fuego! Don't know how much they considered British interests in Latin America - Chile, for example, was helped to independence by the great sea wolf Thomas Cochrane. (An interesting variation on quasi-freebooting right there!)

The South was not thinking of the need for maritime power. For ship building, ports and sailors they depended on the very people they were fixing to fight!

 

[Wehrkraftzersetzer]

not thinking of the need for maritime power

it's called learning by doing and btw they would have bought a lot from the north, a bit from Europe (maybe Krupp) and the navy would have been all Europe made manned with mercenaries

 

[diane]

it's called learninmg by doing and btw they would have bought a lot from the north, a bit from Europe (maybe Krupp) and the navy would have been all Europe made manned with mercenaries

Mallory tried, that's for sure! Unwitting mercenaries were just about what the crew of the Alabama was - they got shanghaied. When James Bulloch narrowly escaped out of Liverpool with her, the primarily British crew didn't know they were on board a Confederate privateer until she got to the Azores, where Bulloch ran up her true colors. Good place to do it - not going to jump ship in the middle of the Atlantic!

 

[Wehrkraftzersetzer]

Don't forget the Union letting the South go means a government being weak & feeble simultaneously. It does the government no good to even look weak and feeble simultaneously. The result are an USA with an untrusted government run by supporters of isolation and the 5th column of the confederacy.
Selling anything the Confederates need (just like those monuments)
When the South has finished rounding up middle America the Union is small fry.

 

[jgoodguy]

I wonder how the CSA is going to run an imperial army and empire on small government and no taxes.

 

[Wehrkraftzersetzer]

I wonder how the CSA is going to run an imperial army and empire on small government and no taxes.

same the Nazis did robbing the subdued and getting bigger in the process

 

[jgoodguy]

same the Nazis did robbing the subdued and getting bigger in the process

Economy of Nazi Germany - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Nazis believed in war as the primary engine of human progress, and argued that the purpose of a country’s economy should be to enable that country to fight and win wars of expansion.[4] As such, almost immediately after coming to power, they embarked on a vast program of military rearmament, which quickly dwarfed civilian investment.[5] During the 1930s, Nazi Germany increased its military spending faster than any other state in peacetime,[6] and the military eventually came to represent the majority of the German economy in the 1940s.[7] This was funded mainly through deficit financing before the war, and the Nazis expected to cover their debt by plundering the wealth of conquered nations during and after the war.[8] Such plunder did occur, but its results fell far short of Nazi expectations.[9]