Mo Durn Politics - 2024 election-General Topics
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Tom
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Latest Polls (30 & 31 August)
Battleground States
Arizona - Trump +1
Nevada - Trump +1
Wisconsin - Trump +1
Michigan - Tie
Pennsylvania - Trump +2
North Carolina - Trump +1
Georgia - Tie
Looks like the Coronation Ball is over...
Battleground States
Arizona - Trump +1
Nevada - Trump +1
Wisconsin - Trump +1
Michigan - Tie
Pennsylvania - Trump +2
North Carolina - Trump +1
Georgia - Tie
Looks like the Coronation Ball is over...
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Don’t Trust the Election Forecasts
The data doesn’t support the obsession with presidential prognostications.
The data doesn’t support the obsession with presidential prognostications.
In our paper, we show that even under best-case scenarios, determining whether one forecast is better calibrated than another can take 28 to 2,588 years. Focusing on accuracy — whether the candidate the model predicted to win actually wins — doesn’t lower the needed time either. Even focusing on state-level results doesn’t help much, because the results are highly correlated. Again, under best-case settings, determining whether one model is better than another at the state level can take at least 56 years — and in some cases would take more than 4,000 years’ worth of elections.
The reason it takes so long to evaluate forecasts of presidential elections is obvious: There is only one presidential election every four years. In fact, we are now having only our 60th presidential election in U.S. history.
Tom
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5fish
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Who ever did that chart was on crack because I lived through all those decades and the inflation in them... So here is a link with the inflation rates during each presidents administration from the 1950s until today...
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U.S. Inflation Rate by President: From Eisenhower to Biden
Here are the average year-over-year inflation rates by president, and the events and economic conditions that contributed to them.
5fish
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@Tom ... Fox did a good news segment... Nate Silver...
www.foxnews.com
Pollster Nate Silver predicts Trump poised to win Electoral College amid 'mediocre' Harris polling
Nate Silver published his latest election forecast, showing former President Trump's chances of winning the presidency rising to 58%, his highest numbers since July.
www.foxnews.com
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Trump campaign pulls away from three target states after Harris surge - Democratic Underground Forums
www.democraticunderground.com
