The Tipping Points are Coming... Climate Change!

[5fish]

The tipping points in climate change are lining up for the near future... It time to stop the lying about stopping climate change to making plans to adjust to the new world that is coming... Think on ice in the Artic, ever...

World on brink of five ‘disastrous’ climate tipping points, study finds

Giant ice sheets, ocean currents and permafrost regions may already have passed point of irreversible change

www.theguardian.com

The climate crisis has driven the world to the brink of multiple “disastrous” tipping points, according to a major study. It shows five dangerous tipping points may already have been passed due to the 1.1C of global heating caused by humanity to date.

These include the collapse of Greenland’s ice cap, eventually producing a huge sea level rise, the collapse of a key current in the north Atlantic, disrupting rain upon which billions of people depend for food, and an abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost. At 1.5C of heating, the minimum rise now expected, four of the five tipping points move from being possible to likely, the analysis said. Also at 1.5C, an additional five tipping points become possible, including changes to vast northern forests and the loss of almost all mountain glaciers. In total, the researchers found evidence for 16 tipping points, with the final six requiring global heating of at least 2C to be triggered, according to the scientists’ estimations. The tipping points would take effect on timescales varying from a few years to centuries.

Here a video about the tipping points...

 

[5fish]

It seems the Amazon Rain Forrest has reached its tipping point...

The Amazon rainforest has already reached a crucial tipping point

About 26 per cent of the Amazon rainforest has already been lost or badly degraded and without intervention the rest could transform into savannah, says a report on its status

www.newscientist.com

.

Indigenous leaders from the nine countries and territories that encompass the Amazon region have presented a report today that says so much of the rainforest has been lost that it has reached a crucial tipping point, that would turn forest to savannah, earlier than expected.

 

[5fish]

Cars, planes, trains: where do CO2 emissions from transport come from?

Transport accounts for around one-fifth of global CO₂ emissions. Three-quarters of this is from road transport.

ourworldindata.org

Charts...



Wishful thinking...

 

[5fish]

Here is many charts about electricity... click the links in the article...

Carbon intensity of electricity generation

Carbon intensity is measured in grams of carbon dioxide-equivalents emitted per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated.

ourworldindata.org

 

[5fish]

Here a interesting climate change story... something is cooling...

One Part of the Ocean Is Getting Colder, Thanks to Medieval Climate Change

The Little Ice Age ended more than a hundred years ago, but its effects are still felt in the deepest parts of the Pacific.

www.popularmechanics.com

With this data, scientists can get a clearer picture of what the world was like during the Little Ice Age. But it also illustrates the consequences of our own episode of climate change. If parts of the ocean can remain cold for hundreds of years after a small ice age, what will happen to the oceans when the planet warms? How long will that warming last in the ocean’s depths? If this research is any indication, we could still be feeling the effects of climate change hundreds of years from now.

 

[5fish]

Here is a rare victory of sorts for the anti-Climate change... @Tom ... The Himalayan Glaciers have slowed their retreat...

https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/false-alarm-over-retreat-himalayan-glaciers

Many activists and journalists warn that rapidly melting Himalayan glaciers due to global warming will have catastrophic consequences. The glaciers have been melting since the end of the last ice age 11,700 years ago, but the melting has not worsened recently. Satellite studies suggest that the vast majority of glaciers in the Himalayas are stable, a minority are shrinking, and a few are advancing. The retreat of the Gangotri Glacier, the source of the Ganges River, has decelerated in recent decades to 10 meters (33 feet) per year, at which rate it will last 3,000 years.

...

Glacial alarmism can seriously distort policies. It can exacerbate tensions and the risk of military conflict between countries in the region that have major ongoing disputes over the sharing of river waters. It can distort priorities in agricultural research. And, it can exaggerate the risks of building dams and roads in the Himalayas.

 

[5fish]

Here is another alarm that seems to be less alarming... only a foot of sea level rise by 2100 from Greenland...

Melting Greenland Ice Sheet Will Cause at Least Ten Inches of Sea-Level Rise, Study Finds
Experts break down the new finding, which provides a higher estimate of meltwater than previous research

Finally, the new forecast does not give a deadline for when the 10-plus inches of sea-level rise would occur, per the Times, though the researchers hypothesize that most will happen by 2100. But Ted Scambos, an ice sheet expert at the University of Colorado Boulder who did not contribute to the study, tells the Post that a longer timescale is probably more accurate: “A lot of the change they forecast would happen in this century, but to get [that level of retreat] would require several centuries, more perhaps.”

 

[5fish]

Here is the antarctic sheet will melt away in 500 years and only 2.5 by sea level rise by 2100 so the sea level will rise only 3.5 feet by 2100... No wonder no one cares...

Antarctic ice shelves are shattering. How fast will seas rise?
An unexpected ice shelf collapse in East Antarctica, after temperatures spiked 70°F above normal, highlights bigger problems in the West, where one glacier could singlehandedly raise global sea levels several feet.

When will the ice melt in Antarctica?

In a 2016 study, a team showed that under the worst-case emissions scenario, nearly all the West Antarctic ice sheet could be lost within 500 years. By 2100 the region's melt could add an extra 2.5 feet to the world's oceans.Mar 28, 2022

 

[5fish]

Let's see... The Glaciers are not melting away anytime soon in the sub-continent nor are the ice in the antarctic and Greenland melting away either and the ocean will only be going to rise by 3.5 by 2100... NOW! Polar Bear you know they have quadrupled their population since 1950...

Don’t believe the polar bear extinction stories from ill-informed climate warriors

When Paul Nicklen and Cristina Mittermeier filmed a starving polar bear scavenging for food in the Canadian Arctic, little did they know how influential it would become. The image of an emaciated bear roaming the once frozen Somerset Island had arguably done more to advance the climate change...

reaction.life

According to government data, the polar bear population was estimated at 5,000 in 1950. It is now roughly five times that number. In fact, for the last three decades, the polar bear population has remained relatively stable. The latest estimates from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) indicate a median estimate of 26,500 (between 22,000 and 31,000) in 2015.

Polar Bears

Polar bear populations have increased dramatically during recent decades, despite the modest global warming that has occurred over the same

climateataglance.com

Polar bear populations have increased dramatically during recent decades, despite the modest global warming that has occurred over the same period.

The estimated polar bear population has quadrupled since 1950, rising from 10,000 bears in 1950 to 39,000 bears today.

Polar bears evolved between 6 million years ago and 350,000 years ago, and they survived and even thrived, in much warmer climates than what we’re seeing today.

 

[5fish]

After seeing that rising oceans are many decades away, Polar bears are not going extinct anytime soon and glaciers may be around well into 2100, I see why the deniers are not punished for their lies. Climate change is slow moving so people do not see it or feel it. I do think what we will see in the future are storms of the century almost every year in the coming decades and droughts lasting years and the desertification of parts of the world... In the end, the oceans will rise... The cartoo expalin it simple people today can not plant a tree for tomorrow...

 

[5fish]

Here is a climate change story that brings back the horrors of WW One... The fires in Europe expose them...

Wildfires Are Setting Off 100-Year-Old Bombs on WWI Battlefields

There are so many explosions due to the raging fire that officials have stopped counting them, local news reported.

www.vice.com

A wildfire is consuming Slovenia and as the blaze moves across areas that were once battlefields during World War I, it's meeting century-old unexploded ordnance with deadly results. According to the Slovenian press, fire swept across a WWI-era bomb on July 22 and detonated it while firefighters worked nearby. Shrapnel buzzed the firefighters but no one was hurt. It’s just one of many such bombs that have exploded due to the fire; officials have stopped counting detonations due to their sheer number, local news reported, only marking ones that explode near roads.

“The problem is that because of the unexploded ordnance firefighting units cannot penetrate into the fire but can only act on its edges. This is why the fire is being intensively fought from the air as well,” Slovenian defense minister Marjan Šarec told the press.

Here is more:

Wildfires are setting off hundreds of unexploded bombs on WWI battlefields, endangering firefighters

On the site of former World War I battlefields, a huge wildfire has caused hundreds of unexploded ordnances to be detonated, according to local media.

www.businessinsider.com

A wildfire in the southwest Kras region of Slovenia, which officials told The Washington Post was the biggest since the country's independence in 1991, has destroyed more than 8,000 acres of farmland. It's also led to the explosion of countless WWI-era bombs, which had laid dormant for more than 100 years, per reports.

The site of the wildfire was where the Battles of the Isonzo, a series of 12 battles between the Austro-Hungarian and Italian armies in WWI, took place. More than 200,000 people died there between 1915 and 1917.

 

[5fish]

Are we frogs in the pot...

 

[5fish]

This is for @Tom ...

 

[5fish]

Here is an article about EXXON known as far back as the 1970s or before that CO2 being put into the air will heat up the earth...

Revealed: Exxon made ‘breathtakingly’ accurate climate predictions in 1970s and 80s

Oil company drove some of the leading science of the era only to publicly dismiss global heating

www.theguardian.com

A trove of internal documents and research papers has previously established that Exxon knew of the dangers of global heating from at least the 1970s, with other oil industry bodies knowing of the risk even earlier, from around the 1950s. They forcefully and successfully mobilized against the science to stymie any action to reduce fossil fuel use.

 

[5fish]

2040 is the start of world collapse first suggested in 1972... and reaffirmed in recent years... @Tom , @rittmeister , @O' Be Joyful . @jgoodguy : There is a list of scenarios, we are on the one referred to as "business as usual". The 1972 prediction did not have climate change in it...

Yep, it’s bleak, says expert who tested 1970s end-of-the-world prediction

A controversial MIT study from 1972 forecast the collapse of civilization – and Gaya Herrington is here to deliver the bad news

www.theguardian.com

Research by Herrington, a rising star in efforts to place data analysis at the center of efforts to curb climate breakdown, affirmed the bleaker scenarios put forward in a landmark 1972 MIT study, The Limits to Growth, that presented various outcomes for what could happen when the growth of industrial civilization collided with finite resources.

Herrington, 39, says she undertook the update (available on the KPMG website and credited to its publisher, the Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology) independently “out of pure curiosity about data accuracy”. Her findings were bleak: current data aligns well with the 1970s analysis that showed economic growth could end at the end of the current decade and collapse come about 10 years later (in worst case scenarios).

In the new study, Herrington focused on two scenarios using a range of variables, or markers, including population, fertility rates, mortality rates, industrial output, food production, services, non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, human welfare, and ecological footprint.

Under one, termed business as usual, or BAU2, growth would stall and combine with population collapse. The other, termed comprehensive technology (CT), modeled stalled economic growth without social collapse. Both scenarios “show a halt in growth within a decade or so from now,” the study says, adding, that “pursuing continuous growth, is not possible.”

Here is a video about it...

 

[5fish]

Here is another look at the 2040 world collapse start date... I like to point out we have had an average of only 1% growth since the start of the 21st century. could it drop below zero growth forever... @Wehrkraftzersetzer

A 70s paper predicted societal collapse in 2040 - here’s what the analyst says

Her Harvard thesis offers a bleak outlook on the course of civilization but sustainability expert Gaya Herrington tells Louise Boyle that the worst-case scenario is not inevitable. ‘We need to completely re-envision what our role is in the world’

www.independent.co.uk

The results, published in 1972 as The Limits to Growth, were sobering. The team discovered that a so-called “business-as-usual” approach to economic growth would drain the planet’s resources and lead to collapse within the 21st century.

But not all future scenarios in Limits to Growth (LtG) were so bleak. The MIT team also discovered that a “stabilized world” was possible, if society reconfigured priorities around the wellbeing of citizens, used resources efficiently, and cut pollution.

Five decades on Ms Herrington’s comparative analysis, along with a number of studies in intervening years, found that LtG has largely stood the test of time.

Overall, the new findings aligned closely with the 1970s study and concluded that civilisation can expect a halt to economic growth in the next 20 years and, in the worst-case scenario, see societal collapse around 2040.

“The strongest conclusion that can be drawn from my research therefore, is that humanity is on a path to having limits to growth imposed on itself rather than consciously choosing its own. However, my research results also leave open whether the subsequent declines in industrial and agricultural output will lead to sharp declines in population and welfare levels,” Ms Herrington wrote in blog post in July.

 

[jgoodguy]

Old news. Most developed countries are in demographic decline some some for years.

 

[5fish]

Old news. Most developed countries are in demographic decline some some for years.

The computer simulation is predicting a Bronze Age-type collapse without warfare...

 

[5fish]

We need to reduce flying to save the planet...

Why we don’t need to stop flying to save the planet, according to science

The impact of aviation on warming will be halted if there are 2.5 percent fewer flights per year ✈️

www.timeout.com

But the paper also has another, slightly more optimistic conclusion. It says that it might take only a small decrease in air travel to make aviation’s contribution to global warming more sustainable – or halt its damage entirely. If there was a 2.5 percent decrease in air travel every year from now on, the study says the aviation industry would cause no further global warming at all. The effects would be immediate.

Stay home...

Per Capita Davis: If seeing the world helps ruin it, should we stay home? - Cool Davis

The last column was the third of three about money, investments, and spending moving capital towards support of a sustainable future. It touched on the subject of “carbon offsets,” payments made to any number of projects that reduce (“offset”) CO2 emissions at least equal to...

www.cooldavis.org

It touched on the subject of “carbon offsets,” payments made to any number of projects that reduce (“offset”) CO2 emissions at least equal to what is produced from an individual’s activity, such as flying on an airplane. This article is more about those flights, what they cost the environment, what they contribute to the climate crisis, and what some airlines and countries are doing about it.

 

[5fish]

Here is an article about where we will live as the world burns...

Where We'll End Up Living as the Planet Burns

Over the next fifty years, hotter temperatures combined with intense humidity are set to make large swathes of the globe lethal to live in.

time.com

North of the 45°N parallel—which runs through Michigan in North America, France, Croatia, Mongolia, and Xinjiang in China, for instance—will be the twenty-first century’s booming haven: it represents 15 per cent of the planet’s area but holds 29 per cent of its ice free land, and is currently home to a small fraction of the world’s (aging) people. It’s also entering that optimum climate for human productivity with mean average temperatures of around 13°C.

Here is another article on the topic...

Climate Change: Where We’ll Have to Live and Where We’ll Need to Leave - Interesting Engineering

Climate change is a global phenomenon, and no place on Earth will be truly safe from it’s effects, but some places will fare better than others.

interestingengineering.com

Earth's climate can just keep getting worse for us; it doesn't have to reach some upper limit on how bad it will get. The 2 degrees Celsius limit that is the general target for limiting warming is entirely arbitrary. There's no reason why we can't go to 4 degrees, or 8 degrees, or higher.
The climate projections at 4 degrees of warming and the effects on us are basically apocalyptic, but it can and does just keep getting worse the warmer it gets beyond that. And our emissions have increased in recent years, not the other way around. Building barriers to survive a 2 degree warmer world means nothing if we go to 4 degrees, and building to 4 degrees of warming is useless in a 5 or 6 degrees warmer world.