I have often wondered what was the cause of the south's demographic deficit compared to the paid labor states as shown in the preliminary report of the 1860 census, Preliminary report on the Eighth Census, 1860 . This early compendium of data was very nearly President Lincoln's white paper on why the US would eventually force reunification.
One strong argument in the report was that although the states that made up the Confederacy by May 1862 controlled a vast territory, that territory was unlike England or Europe. It was not densely populated, and some of it was nearly wilderness.
Any of the following reasons for the deficiency may help explain it.
1. The southern ports could not match the deep water ports of New York/Brooklyn, Boston and Philadelphia. The biggest city in the section of the US that permitted slavery which was not directly connected to the paid labor economy was New Orleans.. And it was about 1/7th the size of New York and Brooklyn. The implication is that although the US was agricultural nation up to 1860, the dominance of water transport and the importance of the merchant services industry had a heavy influence on population patterns.
2. There were plenty of people in Virginia during the generation of the founders and the drafting of the Constitution. Virginia was the dominant state among the original 13 states. But it lost its dominance to New York, Pennsylvania, and even Ohio and Illinois. What happened? The descendants did not stay in Virginia. Land titles might not have secure. It might have been difficult to maintain soil fertility. And southerners may have formed a preference for the dispersed low population density style of living. There was a type of walk away agriculture in the south in which people accepted moving on as part of their way of life. It was also common for a large farm operation in the south to have an extensive amount of fallow land, and to rotate cultivation frequently.
3. The census numbers published in May 1862 revealed that when new numbers of enslaved people were not being added through the acquisition of new territory by the US, the enslaved population was the slowest growing segment of the US. Slaves had been brought in through Louisiana, Florida and Texas. When those additions ceased it became clear that slavery as part of the overall US economy was not keeping up.
4. People moved away from slavery. Southern families experienced how hard it was for a small farmer to compete with the big growers. And northerners who went south frequently left, because they did not like to see slavery.
5. Immigration was concentrated in the paid labor states, as shown in the census figures. People from Europe had no experience with slavery and did not want to compete with slave labor.
6. The railroad industry, particularly after 1850 pried the top off the size of the cities. After that time, anything the city needed could be delivered at a much lower cost. Grain, fuel, and forage could be delivered in mass quantities. That cities of 500,000 to 1,000,000 possible. There were no places like that in south.
7. The disease environment was notoriously bad in some places in the south. Eastern Virginia and what was the southwest in the 1850's, MIssissippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas were known to have a dangerous climate. That might partly explain why many southern families preferred not to be too closely packed in with their neighbors. The enslaved population had to remain. But the white families could move west or north.
It wasn't odd that many people in the south perceived that things had changed and the balance of power had shifted north and west. The issue was that they were told independence was going to fix the problem. That was probably a deception.
One strong argument in the report was that although the states that made up the Confederacy by May 1862 controlled a vast territory, that territory was unlike England or Europe. It was not densely populated, and some of it was nearly wilderness.
Any of the following reasons for the deficiency may help explain it.
1. The southern ports could not match the deep water ports of New York/Brooklyn, Boston and Philadelphia. The biggest city in the section of the US that permitted slavery which was not directly connected to the paid labor economy was New Orleans.. And it was about 1/7th the size of New York and Brooklyn. The implication is that although the US was agricultural nation up to 1860, the dominance of water transport and the importance of the merchant services industry had a heavy influence on population patterns.
2. There were plenty of people in Virginia during the generation of the founders and the drafting of the Constitution. Virginia was the dominant state among the original 13 states. But it lost its dominance to New York, Pennsylvania, and even Ohio and Illinois. What happened? The descendants did not stay in Virginia. Land titles might not have secure. It might have been difficult to maintain soil fertility. And southerners may have formed a preference for the dispersed low population density style of living. There was a type of walk away agriculture in the south in which people accepted moving on as part of their way of life. It was also common for a large farm operation in the south to have an extensive amount of fallow land, and to rotate cultivation frequently.
3. The census numbers published in May 1862 revealed that when new numbers of enslaved people were not being added through the acquisition of new territory by the US, the enslaved population was the slowest growing segment of the US. Slaves had been brought in through Louisiana, Florida and Texas. When those additions ceased it became clear that slavery as part of the overall US economy was not keeping up.
4. People moved away from slavery. Southern families experienced how hard it was for a small farmer to compete with the big growers. And northerners who went south frequently left, because they did not like to see slavery.
5. Immigration was concentrated in the paid labor states, as shown in the census figures. People from Europe had no experience with slavery and did not want to compete with slave labor.
6. The railroad industry, particularly after 1850 pried the top off the size of the cities. After that time, anything the city needed could be delivered at a much lower cost. Grain, fuel, and forage could be delivered in mass quantities. That cities of 500,000 to 1,000,000 possible. There were no places like that in south.
7. The disease environment was notoriously bad in some places in the south. Eastern Virginia and what was the southwest in the 1850's, MIssissippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas were known to have a dangerous climate. That might partly explain why many southern families preferred not to be too closely packed in with their neighbors. The enslaved population had to remain. But the white families could move west or north.
It wasn't odd that many people in the south perceived that things had changed and the balance of power had shifted north and west. The issue was that they were told independence was going to fix the problem. That was probably a deception.
