Tariff 2.1 ... in 2026 ...
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5fish
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More Tariffs... Enduring ones... Trump's just going to have open-ended investigations to keep the tariffs in place forever... is it legal? The courts will have to figure it out... a permanent tax on us... without congress...
The "bridge to enduring tariffs" refers to the Trump administration's strategy of utilizing temporary, 150-day 15% global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (effective late February 2026) as a stopgap measure following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated previous tariff actions. These short-term duties serve as a "bridge" to provide immediate trade pressure while the administration works to implement more permanent, investigation-backed tariffs under other legal authorities, such as Section 301 (unfair trade practices) and Section 232 (national security).
The New York Times +3
Key Aspects of the "Bridge" Strategy:
The "bridge to enduring tariffs" refers to the Trump administration's strategy of utilizing temporary, 150-day 15% global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (effective late February 2026) as a stopgap measure following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated previous tariff actions. These short-term duties serve as a "bridge" to provide immediate trade pressure while the administration works to implement more permanent, investigation-backed tariffs under other legal authorities, such as Section 301 (unfair trade practices) and Section 232 (national security).
The New York Times +3
Key Aspects of the "Bridge" Strategy:
- The Bridge (Section 122): Invoked in response to a "balance-of-payments" issue after the Supreme Court ruled the previous International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs unconstitutional, this 15% rate lasts for a maximum of 150 days.
- Purpose: To maintain pressure on foreign trading partners and keep tariff revenue steady while avoiding the immediate legal challenges that struck down prior, more, and longer-lasting measures.
- The Destination (Enduring Tariffs): The administration is initiating new investigations under Section 301, which can lead to sector-specific or country-specific tariffs with no 150-day limit.
- Other Tools: Continued reliance on Section 232 to impose durable tariffs on strategic goods like steel, aluminum, and autos based on national security findings.
- Timeline: The 15% Section 122 tariffs are expected to expire around late July 2026 unless approved by Congress, which is seen as unlikely.
- Market Effect: The shift to this, and subsequent, tariffs has been described as creating a "new chapter" in trade, with ongoing, if not increased, volatility and uncertainty for businesses.
- Negotiation Strategy: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated this approach ensures that tariff revenue in 2026 remains unchanged, allowing the administration to achieve its intended tariff levels through a different, albeit more complex, legal pathway
5fish
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Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs? - Liberty Street Economics
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this blog post, we ask how much of the tariffs were paid by the U.S., using import data through November 2025. We find that nearly 90 percent of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms...
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
We highlight two main results. First, 94 percent of the tariff incidence was borne by the U.S. in the first eight months of 2025. This result means that a 10 percent tariff caused only a 0.6 percentage point decline in foreign export prices. Second, the tariff pass-through into import prices has declined in the latter part of the year. That is, a larger share of the tariff incidence was borne by foreign exporters by the end of the year. In November, a 10 percent tariff was associated with a 1.4 percent decline in foreign export prices, suggesting an 86 percent pass-through to U.S. import prices. Given that the average tariff in December was 13 percent (see the first chart), our results imply that U.S. import prices for goods subject to the average tariff increased by 11 percent (13 times 0.86) more than those for goods not subject to tariffs. These higher import prices caused firms to reorganize supply chains, as suggested by the findings presented in the two charts above.
In sum, U.S. firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025.
5fish
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