Neither conventional route to Confederate independence was viable.

[Union8448]

The pictorial history of the Civil War I am toying with recites the standard two ways the Confederacy might have gained something that could be call independence.
The first way is the standard listing of foreign intervention. But if that intervention comes from Britain, I am certain that would have quickly led to a demand for the abolition of slavery. In that regard it would have been out of the pan and into the fire for the Confederacy. If the intervention comes from France, it comes with a demand for a French monopoly on the cotton trade, and for military support in French foreign adventures. I doubt the Confederacy would submit to being a satrapy of France for long, even if some rich guys wanted it.
The second path suggested is the usual one. If the Confederates believed more deeply in their cause, fought better, risked more deaths, then the Tinkerbell of Confederate independence would revive and survive. It seems like magical thinking to me. If the Confederacy had survived a war of exhaustion,
1. they are permanently locked out of the US west, and have lost at war the same issue they lost in the 1860 election;
2. the section that permitted slavery would be reduced from 15 to no more than the equivalent of 10 states;
3. the Confederacy would gain control of its own military and its own foreign policy, but their influence on US policy would be vanishingly small, and the foreign enemies of the Confederates can fight them or embargo their goods. without hurting the US and its diverse European immigrant communities. Independence is a sword that cuts two ways.

 

[Union8448]

To truly be independent a nation has to have its own navy and be able to pay its bills. The Confederacy never demonstrated that it could achieve either goal.

 

[rittmeister]

i consider staging a rebellion is a rather conventional way - of course it didn't work either

 

[O' Be Joyful]

The pictorial history of the Civil War I am toying with recites the standard two ways the Confederacy might have gained something that could be call independence.
The first way is the standard listing of foreign intervention. But if that intervention comes from Britain, I am certain that would have quickly led to a demand for the abolition of slavery. In that regard it would have been out of the pan and into the fire for the Confederacy. If the intervention comes from France, it comes with a demand for a French monopoly on the cotton trade, and for military support in French foreign adventures. I doubt the Confederacy would submit to being a satrapy of France for long, even if some rich guys wanted it.
The second path suggested is the usual won. If the Confederates believed more deeply in their cause, fought better, risked more deaths, then the Tinkerbell of Confederate independence would revive and survive. It seems like magical thinking to me. If the Confederacy had survived a war of exhaustion,
1. they are permanently locked out of the US west, and have lost at war the same issue they lost in the 1860 election;
2. the section that permitted slavery would be reduced from 15 to no more than the equivalent of 10 states;
3. the Confederacy would gain control of its own military and its own foreign policy, but their influence on US policy would be vanishingly small, and the foreign enemies of the Confederates can fight them or embargo their goods. without hurting the US and its diverse European immigrant communities. Independence is a sword that cuts two ways.

Interesting, but most of the People were against intervention it was the Ruling Class/business intersts of those two that were pushing for it. Besides the Frenchies were getting bogged down in their Mexico fiasco.

 

[diane]

If the Confederacy was locked out of the west with the admission of several western states into the Union, then the only other way left was to go south. Far south! The Monroe Doctrine claimed no other nation but the US could influence those new nations coming out of the break-up of the Spanish empire - that invited the free-booters and the other adventurers. The CW put a halt to financing of these random and sometimes whimsical adventures, but after the war there were many Southerners who moved further south. More than 10,000 formed a colony in Brazil alone. With turmoil still on-going in South America, there was a fairly good chance of restarting the Confederacy there. The plans for Mexico might have worked - a contingent of experienced, hard-core Confederate veterans might quickly topple Maximillian and set up another government before the French could come to Mexico's aid. As the Confederacy fell apart, several government officials wanted to continue the war in the Trans-Mississippi, or from Mexico. JO Shelby refused to surrender and took a strong force with him to Mexico. N B Forrest was encouraged to join him there with his troops but declined, calling any further prosecution of the war lunacy. (Part of him did think there was a possibility of the pipe dream actually working but nobody was going to let it stand. This plan also ignored the Mexican people - who might not co-operate!)

 

[5fish]

The South could have taken the Gandi Way... Until the first shots were fired opinions in the North and South were fluid. Once the first shot was fired opinions began to solidify on both sides. Davis thought the Confederacy was going to dissolve back into the union as the passion for succession began to wane. A shot needed to be fired?

Gandhi's Way...

What if President Davis had not authorized the attack on Ft. Sumter and he stopped the confiscation of federal property within the newly formed Confederacy? This has huge repercussion because without firing on Ft. Sumter, Pres. Lincoln would not have order the forming of an army. Without...

www.jggscivilwartalk.online

 

[Union8448]

Good comments. My suggestion is that if the Confederacy survives based on foreign intervention, they don't achieve independence. Instead of being part of the US, they would be dependent on the goodwill of Britain or France. Its also difficult to see how the Confederacy becomes independent without its own industrial base. The historical comparison is the success of the Whig American plan as promoted by Henry Clay. Comparisons could be made to Germany and Japan which did achieve industrialization. But those two nations had a much stronger educational system. Japan is notable for being to blend modern technology with Japanese culture and maintain its identity, at least until they were conquered by the US.
Industrializing isn't easy. The men who succeeded at it are the exception. Thousands of others saw their businesses fail and sold out to their competitors.

 

[Union8448]

If the Confederacy was locked out of the west with the admission of several western states into the Union, then the only other way left was to go south. Far south! The Monroe Doctrine claimed no other nation but the US could influence those new nations coming out of the break-up of the Spanish empire - that invited the free-booters and the other adventurers. The CW put a halt to financing of these random and sometimes whimsical adventures, but after the war there were many Southerners who moved further south. More than 10,000 formed a colony in Brazil alone. With turmoil still on-going in South America, there was a fairly good chance of restarting the Confederacy there. The plans for Mexico might have worked - a contingent of experienced, hard-core Confederate veterans might quickly topple Maximillian and set up another government before the French could come to Mexico's aid. As the Confederacy fell apart, several government officials wanted to continue the war in the Trans-Mississippi, or from Mexico. JO Shelby refused to surrender and took a strong force with him to Mexico. N B Forrest was encouraged to join him there with his troops but declined, calling any further prosecution of the war lunacy. (Part of him did think there was a possibility of the pipe dream actually working but nobody was going to let it stand. This plan also ignored the Mexican people - who might not co-operate!)

I think in that era former President Grant accurately described the Confederacy's prospects when he wrote or said in essence that the US was not going to allow the Confederacy to expand in the west, and Britain was probably not going to allow them to expand southward. In the real world, Britian did not support the French incursion into Mexico. Britian did not object to the US informing the French they would have to leave and an interval of 40 years passed before the British were willing to fight alongside the French against another industrial power.
Many things that were possible were nevertheless very improbable.

 

[5fish]

To truly be independent a nation has to have its own navy and be able to pay its bills. The Confederacy never demonstrated that it could achieve either goal.

I disagree they paid their bills and did their best to build a navy during the war. If they had won their right to secede they would have had an opportunity to pay their bills and build a navy in peace. I want to point out, during the Revolutionary War, we paid our bills but it was not until peace before we built a formal navy.

 

[Union8448]

I disagree they paid their bills and did their best to build a navy during the war. If they had won their right to secede they would have had an opportunity to pay their bills and build a navy in peace. I want to point out, during the Revolutionary War, we paid our bills but it was not until peace before we built a formal navy.

I disagree on both points.

 

[rittmeister]

To truly be independent a nation has to have its own navy and be able to pay its bills. The Confederacy never demonstrated that it could achieve either goal.

who tells the swiss about your navy theory - you or me?

... i stipulate that switzerland never sold cotton to anyone, though

 

[Union8448]

OK. There's the exception that proves the rule. Isn't Switzerland kind of mountainous?

 

[rittmeister]

OK. There's the exception that proves the rule. Isn't Switzerland kind of mountainous?

you got the rockies

 

[diane]

The US Navy didn't exist until Joshua Humphries built six frigates, one of which was the USS Constitution, Old Ironsides. He used an innovative method for a more flexible keel, which allowed a frigate to use more cannon than, say, a British one, and liked to use Southern live oak, a species found only in America. It was also flexible - cannon balls were seen to 'bounce' off the hull of the Constitution and so came her nickname. The design allowed the use of more sail, so American frigates were faster and swift to handle. Horatio Nelson watched Old Ironsides maneuver off Gibraltar and remarked that the American frigates would be a big problem for the British navy soon. (His unspoken thought was: I want one!)

For building a navy, one can't overlook Edward Preble and Preble's Boys - the officers he trained for command of these frigates. They proved themselves - both ships and officers - in the Barbary Wars against the kleptocracies in North Africa, no slouches at sailing themselves. It wasn't until the Philadelphia was avenged that the American navy was taken seriously.

 

[rittmeister]

OK. There's the exception that proves the rule. Isn't Switzerland kind of mountainous?

there are 47 land locked states on this planets which kinda means they won't have a wet navy - i think i read somwhere about an andorian space navy or somesuch

 

[diane]

there are 47 land locked states on this planets which kinda means they won't have a wet navy - i think i read somwhere about an andorian space navy or somesuch

I think if you're landlocked and can't get your own navy, you find a buddy who has one?

 

[rittmeister]

The US Navy didn't exist until Joshua Humphries built six frigates, one of which was the USS Constitution, Old Ironsides. He used an innovative method for a more flexible keel, which allowed a frigate to use more cannon than, say, a British one, and liked to use Southern live oak, a species found only in America. It was also flexible - cannon balls were seen to 'bounce' off the hull of the Constitution and so came her nickname. The design allowed the use of more sail, so American frigates were faster and swift to handle. Horatio Nelson watched Old Ironsides maneuver off Gibraltar and remarked that the American frigates would be a big problem for the British navy soon. (His unspoken thought was: I want one!)

For building a navy, one can't overlook Edward Preble and Preble's Boys - the officers he trained for command of these frigates. They proved themselves - both ships and officers - in the Barbary Wars against the kleptocracies in North Africa, no slouches at sailing themselves. It wasn't until the Philadelphia was avenged that the American navy was taken seriously.

come on, nelson would also have trated his beloved hms agamemnon for a destroyer of the same name

 

[rittmeister]

I think if you're landlocked and can't get your own navy, you find a buddy who has one?

if you call someone with his thumb on your neck a buddy you might be right

 

[diane]

come on, nelson would also have trated his beloved hms agamemnon for a destroyer of the same name

View attachment 13917

I'm not sure of that! Nelson LOVED the Agamemnon! They had to pry him off it like a barnacle. (However...guns. Big guns...That's mighty tempting!)

 

[diane]

if you call someone with his thumb on your neck a buddy you might be right

Indeed so - no such thing as a free lunch!