Keys to the White House in 2020

5fish

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Here is a video and article about and by Allan Lichtman about who going to win the White House in 2020. He has been right every election since 1980 and he does not use polls to predict the winner. He uses 13 keys or questions. How many keys does it take to win the White House...

Here is the link to the article a short video explaining who is going to win the White House in November...

LINK: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/05/opinion/2020-election-prediction-allan-lichtman.html

Snip...

In the video Op-Ed above, Professor Lichtman walks us through his system, which identifies 13 “keys” to winning the White House. Each key is a binary statement: true or false. And if six or more keys are false, the party in the White House is on its way out.

Snip...

In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately called presidential victors, from Ronald Reagan in ’84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016.

Here is a wiki link about the "13 Keys" to the White House...

Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

Here is a review of his prediction that Trump will win the White House back in 2016...

LINK: https://pollyvote.com/en/components/models/mixed/keys-to-the-white-house/

Snip...

When five or fewer keys are false, the incumbent party wins; when any six or more are false, the challenging party wins.

A video predicting the winner...

 

Wehrkraftzersetzer

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In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately called presidential victors, from Ronald Reagan in ’84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016.
well if it fits the next 120 years otherwise it may be as idiotic as Titius-Bode
 

5fish

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well if it fits the next 120 years otherwise it may be as idiotic as Titius-Bode
Wait a moment... He predict the election from 1980 to now before election day ... Yes, he and his Russian friend did all the election before 1980 retrospectively....
 

Wehrkraftzersetzer

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didn't watch it only download, will watch it tonight (together with others) I have a lot of emty time in my 12 hour shifts
 

Wehrkraftzersetzer

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retrospective is the conspiracy attempt

example: any time Germany naturalizes an Austrian to become chancellor Japan will commit a sneak attack on the US
(worked since the founding of the US)

whenever Republican think thanks endorse a Democrat a President with German ancestors is sitting in the WH, therefore the Democrats are antiGerman
 

5fish

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retrospective is the conspiracy attempt

example: any time Germany naturalizes an Austrian to become chancellor Japan will commit a sneak attack on the US
(worked since the founding of the US)

whenever Republican think thanks endorse a Democrat a President with German ancestors is sitting in the WH, therefore the Democrats are antiGerman
I see but I think you are seeing or reading to much into Lichtman work...
 

Kirk's Raider's

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I see but I think you are seeing or reading to much into Lichtman work...
We can't know who will win in 2020. Yes Biden is ahead in the polls but so was Dukais in 1988 in August in fact he had an even larger lead over Bush.
We know more people will vote by mail at a time when Trump is actively destroying the Post Office in front of our eyes.
The debates haven't happened and Biden is already in a state of dementia vs Trump who is a rapid lier although Biden has issues with the truth.
In the 2020 primary debates Biden had difficulty in speaking in complete sentences.
Robin Williams in 2009 noted in his comedy act Biden said things even people with Tourettes Syndrome would object to.
That's not to say Biden won't win the presidency as Trump has a lot of issues as well.
Kirk's Raiders
 

Wehrkraftzersetzer

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I watched it know & and the claim he had always known the winner since he does it.

I refuse to believe it is that easy
 

rittmeister

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retrospective is the conspiracy attempt

example: any time Germany naturalizes an Austrian to become chancellor Japan will commit a sneak attack on the US
(worked since the founding of the US)

whenever Republican think thanks endorse a Democrat a President with German ancestors is sitting in the WH, therefore the Democrats are antiGerman
as i said
you suck at statistics
 

Wehrkraftzersetzer

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I do not titius-bode laws may not live up to its hype but it still gets the planetary guys all in a fuss...
no everybody knows it is a construct that was shattered to pieces when the outer planets were found / discovered
 

5fish

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If you do not like Lichtman prediction then put your many where your forecast is. There are sites where you bet money on future events or a from of crowd sourcing...

The first one is out of New Zealand... the link below will introduce you to the world predicting the future with markets... link to home page

LINK: https://www.predictit.org/

PredictIt is a New Zealand-based prediction market that offers prediction exchanges on political and financial events.[1] PredictIt is owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington[2] with support from Aristotle, Inc.[3] The market was launched on 3 November 2014.[1][4] PredictIt's office is located in Washington, D.C.[4]

PredictIt was launched on 3 November 2014.[1] By March 2020, the website had approximately 100,000 active traders.[5] The nonprofit educational project of the Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, "had to work around federal laws that prohibit online gambling and govern commodity futures trading."[6] During the 2016 United States elections, PredictIt, along with other prediction market websites, received attention from various media outlets.

PredictIt offers a data sharing program for members of the academic community. PredictIt has over 160 data partners, including researchers affiliated with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard University, Yale University, Duke University, and the University of Pennsylvania.

There is a second one which is more ivory tower type... link is to their home page

LINK:https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/

The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) are a group of real-money prediction markets/futures markets operated by the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business. Unlike normal futures markets, the IEM is not-for-profit; the markets are run for educational and research purposes.

The IEM allows traders to buy and sell contracts based on, among other things, political election results and economic indicators. Some markets are only available to academic traders.

The IEM has often been used to predict the results of political elections with a greater accuracy than traditional polls.[1][2][3][4] A precursor to the IEM was the Iowa Political Stock Market (IPSM), invented by George Neumann, and developed by Robert E. Forsythe, Forrest Nelson, and George Neumann.


Here are wiki links to them...

LINK: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt
LINK: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Electronic_Markets
 
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